TRACKERS

Posted at 1:50 p.m. ET

Both trackers have now been published.  While we always caution about reports on a single day, the news is unexpected and potentially significant.

As reported earlier, Rasmussen, which had Obama up three yesterday, now calls the race a tie.

But Gallup, which had the race tied yesterday, now has McCain two points ahead.

In other words, if the figures accurately reflect public opinion, the race is defying traditional expectations.  So far, there is no bounce for the Democrats from the selection of Joe Biden.  Indeed, it didn't seem to go down all that well.  And the convention excitement apparently hasn't spread to the voters.

A cautionary note:  Some of this "reverse bounce" might be coming from Hillary Clinton voters who were angered that she wasn't chosen as Obama's vice-presidential nominee.  That anger can dissipate over time, or Hillary herself can reverse it with her speech tonight. 

But, whatever the cause, this isn't where the Democrats wanted to be, or needed to be.  Their situation can, of course, change during the remaining three nights of their convention.  But there can be no joy in Denver.  Mighty Barack is striking out.

August 26, 2008.